Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603896.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.66 - $77.96$33.47
Multi-Stage$12.50 - $13.65$13.06
Blended Fair Value$23.26
Current Price$20.43
Upside13.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.93%5.66%0.420.460.310.240.250.170.140.090.100.13
YoY Growth---10.54%51.80%28.65%-4.18%48.19%16.71%52.12%-3.38%-24.97%-45.70%
Dividend Yield--2.09%1.82%0.61%0.53%0.91%0.79%0.44%0.27%0.76%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)132.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.4816.559.93
Cash Retained (M)76.4676.4676.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.48-16.55-9.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.9859.9166.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.77199.77199.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.66$33.47$77.96
Upside / Downside-3.78%63.82%281.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)132.39140.99150.16159.92170.31181.38186.82
Payout Ratio42.25%51.80%61.35%70.90%80.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.9373.0392.12113.38137.01163.24172.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.7767.4068.04
Year 2 PV (M)77.0178.4779.95
Year 3 PV (M)86.6689.1491.68
Year 4 PV (M)95.7599.43103.22
Year 5 PV (M)104.30109.34114.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,065.702,165.472,269.06
Equity Value (M)2,496.182,609.262,726.52
Shares Outstanding (M)199.77199.77199.77
Fair Value$12.50$13.06$13.65
Upside / Downside-38.84%-36.07%-33.19%

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