Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603811.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.57 - $138.52$129.81
Multi-Stage$33.04 - $36.21$34.60
Blended Fair Value$82.20
Current Price$12.95
Upside534.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.44%14.61%0.240.230.210.190.160.110.110.110.150.14
YoY Growth--3.71%7.52%9.41%20.02%46.17%-0.19%1.57%-27.41%4.61%137.24%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.80%1.57%1.56%1.24%1.24%1.56%1.40%0.99%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)226.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.2728.2916.98
Cash Retained (M)142.26142.26142.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.27-28.29-16.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.99113.96125.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)324.98324.98324.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$117.57$129.81$138.52
Upside / Downside807.87%902.40%969.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)226.35241.06256.73273.42291.19310.12319.42
Payout Ratio37.15%47.72%58.29%68.86%79.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.09115.04149.65188.28231.30279.11295.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)108.33109.35110.38
Year 2 PV (M)132.70135.23137.78
Year 3 PV (M)157.21161.72166.32
Year 4 PV (M)181.86188.86196.05
Year 5 PV (M)206.65216.63227.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,951.2010,431.8410,930.88
Equity Value (M)10,737.9511,243.6411,768.41
Shares Outstanding (M)324.98324.98324.98
Fair Value$33.04$34.60$36.21
Upside / Downside155.15%167.16%179.63%

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