Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. (603650.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.26 - $191.17$179.15
Multi-Stage$44.78 - $49.01$46.86
Blended Fair Value$113.00
Current Price$44.19
Upside155.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.86%18.75%0.980.210.210.420.410.380.050.290.290.48
YoY Growth--371.92%-1.05%-49.65%2.30%7.22%728.43%-84.09%-1.20%-38.63%170.51%
Dividend Yield--3.04%0.78%0.53%1.16%1.19%2.50%0.17%1.63%1.65%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)514.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.4571.5342.92
Cash Retained (M)57.6757.6757.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.45-71.53-42.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-56.78-13.8614.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.34595.34595.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$162.26$179.15$191.17
Upside / Downside267.18%305.41%332.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.27609.47649.08691.27736.20784.06807.58
Payout Ratio89.92%89.94%89.95%89.97%89.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)514.60548.14583.87621.93662.47705.65747.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)515.72520.61525.50
Year 2 PV (M)516.85526.69536.63
Year 3 PV (M)517.98532.85548.00
Year 4 PV (M)519.11539.07559.61
Year 5 PV (M)520.24545.37571.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,068.4225,230.9326,437.94
Equity Value (M)26,658.3327,895.5329,179.14
Shares Outstanding (M)595.34595.34595.34
Fair Value$44.78$46.86$49.01
Upside / Downside1.33%6.03%10.91%

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