Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (603527.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.55 - $85.48$80.10
Multi-Stage$21.58 - $23.64$22.59
Blended Fair Value$51.35
Current Price$11.56
Upside344.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.70%-1.61%0.260.270.230.150.150.140.130.100.090.05
YoY Growth---4.88%18.60%50.71%-0.28%12.10%5.40%33.62%9.81%94.07%-85.09%
Dividend Yield--2.60%2.51%1.68%1.34%2.02%1.46%1.40%0.74%0.90%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1416.9710.18
Cash Retained (M)53.3153.3153.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.14-16.97-10.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1636.3443.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.55$80.10$85.48
Upside / Downside527.59%592.94%639.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.72144.54153.94163.94174.60185.95191.53
Payout Ratio60.72%66.58%72.43%78.29%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.4196.23111.50128.35146.92167.35177.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.7091.5692.42
Year 2 PV (M)99.06100.94102.85
Year 3 PV (M)107.47110.56113.70
Year 4 PV (M)115.95120.41125.00
Year 5 PV (M)124.49130.51136.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,276.856,580.026,894.80
Equity Value (M)6,814.537,134.017,465.52
Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
Fair Value$21.58$22.59$23.64
Upside / Downside86.68%95.43%104.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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