Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anjoy Foods Group Co., Ltd. (603345.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.61 - $912.78$290.28
Multi-Stage$93.35 - $102.01$97.60
Blended Fair Value$193.94
Current Price$70.51
Upside175.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.05%0.00%3.081.880.730.650.430.330.250.210.000.03
YoY Growth--63.41%159.48%12.22%51.40%28.47%33.81%19.51%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.86%2.16%0.44%0.59%0.20%0.39%0.58%0.77%0.00%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,386.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)579.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)807.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.40173.37104.02
Cash Retained (M)807.90807.90807.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.40-173.37-104.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)530.51634.53703.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)302.19302.19302.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.762.102.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.921.921.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.762.102.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.674.024.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.61$290.28$912.78
Upside / Downside122.11%311.68%1,194.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,386.981,477.131,573.141,675.401,784.301,900.281,957.29
Payout Ratio41.75%51.40%61.05%70.70%80.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)579.07759.25960.411,184.511,433.691,710.251,810.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)696.58703.19709.79
Year 2 PV (M)808.40823.80839.35
Year 3 PV (M)914.74941.00967.75
Year 4 PV (M)1,015.781,054.841,095.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,111.701,165.401,221.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,662.9224,805.8525,992.52
Equity Value (M)28,210.1329,494.0730,825.58
Shares Outstanding (M)302.19302.19302.19
Fair Value$93.35$97.60$102.01
Upside / Downside32.40%38.42%44.67%

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