Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Zhende Medical Co., Ltd. (603301.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.02 - $51.71$32.38
Multi-Stage$16.50 - $17.97$17.22
Blended Fair Value$24.80
Current Price$46.66
Upside-46.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%10.25%0.591.580.612.030.290.220.080.080.080.14
YoY Growth---62.38%157.97%-69.79%594.25%34.22%177.62%-1.60%-5.61%-40.12%-37.09%
Dividend Yield--2.75%7.60%1.70%5.14%0.51%0.77%0.39%0.55%0.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)280.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.1835.1121.07
Cash Retained (M)89.3589.3589.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.18-35.11-21.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1754.2468.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.34268.34268.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.02$32.38$51.71
Upside / Downside-52.82%-30.61%10.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)280.90299.15318.60339.31361.36384.85396.40
Payout Ratio68.19%72.55%76.91%81.28%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.55217.04245.05275.78309.47346.37366.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)196.33198.19200.05
Year 2 PV (M)200.51204.33208.18
Year 3 PV (M)204.11209.97215.94
Year 4 PV (M)207.19215.15223.35
Year 5 PV (M)209.76219.89230.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,409.403,574.073,745.05
Equity Value (M)4,427.294,621.604,822.98
Shares Outstanding (M)268.34268.34268.34
Fair Value$16.50$17.22$17.97
Upside / Downside-64.64%-63.09%-61.48%

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