Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company Ltd. (603288.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.25 - $162.70$64.78
Multi-Stage$26.68 - $29.14$27.89
Blended Fair Value$46.33
Current Price$38.96
Upside18.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.87%25.71%0.650.580.570.590.520.470.410.330.290.23
YoY Growth--13.41%1.22%-3.83%14.41%10.38%15.23%24.86%13.28%27.05%241.49%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.45%0.89%0.90%0.56%0.77%0.97%1.18%1.70%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,851.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,785.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,066.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,370.29856.43513.86
Cash Retained (M)2,066.212,066.212,066.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,370.29-856.43-513.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)695.931,209.781,552.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,635.035,635.035,635.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.210.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.210.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Fair Value$37.25$64.78$162.70
Upside / Downside-4.40%66.27%317.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,851.437,253.867,679.928,131.018,608.609,114.249,387.67
Payout Ratio69.84%73.87%77.91%81.94%85.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,785.225,358.725,983.096,662.317,400.698,202.828,683.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Year 1 PV (M)4,932.624,979.655,026.68
Year 2 PV (M)5,069.415,166.555,264.61
Year 3 PV (M)5,196.055,346.115,499.03
Year 4 PV (M)5,312.965,518.525,729.99
Year 5 PV (M)5,420.555,683.965,957.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)124,408.81130,454.38136,732.71
Equity Value (M)150,340.40157,149.16164,210.53
Shares Outstanding (M)5,635.035,635.035,635.03
Fair Value$26.68$27.89$29.14
Upside / Downside-31.52%-28.42%-25.20%

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