Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited (601998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.09 - $15.30$12.54
Multi-Stage$21.32 - $23.42$22.35
Blended Fair Value$17.44
Current Price$8.50
Upside105.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.05%9.76%0.500.360.330.260.250.220.240.200.170.00
YoY Growth--39.24%7.27%29.77%4.98%12.67%-7.45%18.99%14.24%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--7.03%5.75%6.17%5.07%4.51%4.21%3.68%3.07%2.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69,564.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,918.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,646.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,912.808,695.505,217.30
Cash Retained (M)21,646.0021,646.0021,646.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,912.80-8,695.50-5,217.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,733.2012,950.5016,428.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59,830.7459,830.7459,830.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.09$12.54$15.30
Upside / Downside18.74%47.53%79.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69,564.0068,868.3668,179.6867,497.8866,822.9066,154.6768,139.31
Payout Ratio68.88%73.11%77.33%81.55%85.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,918.0050,347.3652,723.3455,046.7757,318.4659,539.2063,028.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)46,564.6447,039.7947,514.93
Year 2 PV (M)45,098.4846,023.5646,958.02
Year 3 PV (M)43,548.2144,894.9746,269.21
Year 4 PV (M)41,938.4643,676.6145,468.24
Year 5 PV (M)40,290.3042,388.3144,572.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,057,977.581,113,068.931,170,431.73
Equity Value (M)1,275,417.681,337,092.171,401,214.97
Shares Outstanding (M)59,830.7459,830.7459,830.74
Fair Value$21.32$22.35$23.42
Upside / Downside150.79%162.92%175.53%

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