Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd (601916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.88 - $100.62$88.72
Multi-Stage$13.04 - $14.26$13.64
Blended Fair Value$51.18
Current Price$2.98
Upside1,617.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.94%70.27%0.200.210.070.160.210.030.150.110.090.00
YoY Growth---3.77%184.15%-53.63%-25.38%553.11%-78.10%32.38%29.75%29,491.20%-70.23%
Dividend Yield--6.75%6.92%2.70%5.01%5.49%0.84%3.14%2.37%1.83%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,949.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,830.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,119.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,789.801,743.631,046.18
Cash Retained (M)5,119.005,119.005,119.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,789.80-1,743.63-1,046.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,329.203,375.384,072.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27,570.2527,570.2527,570.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.88$88.72$100.62
Upside / Downside835.68%2,877.06%3,276.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,949.0014,855.6915,821.3016,849.6917,944.9219,111.3419,684.68
Payout Ratio63.30%68.64%73.98%79.32%84.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,830.0010,197.1811,704.7913,365.3115,192.2417,200.2018,208.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,437.829,527.289,616.74
Year 2 PV (M)10,026.4410,217.4110,410.19
Year 3 PV (M)10,596.2810,900.4611,210.41
Year 4 PV (M)11,147.7611,576.4712,017.43
Year 5 PV (M)11,681.2912,245.5112,831.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)306,737.53321,553.07336,935.63
Equity Value (M)359,627.13376,020.20393,021.71
Shares Outstanding (M)27,570.2527,570.2527,570.25
Fair Value$13.04$13.64$14.26
Upside / Downside337.72%357.67%378.37%

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