Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $51.41 - $185.53 | $163.58 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.86 - $26.09 | $24.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $94.27 | |
| Current Price | $6.28 | |
| Upside | 1,401.05% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 14.99% | 16.12% | 0.54 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 69.01% | 10.46% | 53.25% | 119.90% | -68.05% | -6.80% | 45.90% | -0.21% | 93.83% | -15.71% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.09% | 6.00% | 5.31% | 2.81% | 0.90% | 2.83% | 3.04% | 2.08% | 2.09% | 1.08% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,599.57 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,370.92 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,228.64 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 519.91 | 324.95 | 194.97 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,228.64 | 1,228.64 | 1,228.64 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -519.91 | -324.95 | -194.97 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 708.73 | 903.70 | 1,033.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,786.59 | 2,786.59 | 2,786.59 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $51.41 | $163.58 | $185.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 718.67% | 2,504.77% | 2,854.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,599.57 | 2,768.54 | 2,948.49 | 3,140.14 | 3,344.25 | 3,561.63 | 3,668.48 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.74% | 60.19% | 67.64% | 75.09% | 82.55% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,370.92 | 1,666.36 | 1,994.42 | 2,358.08 | 2,760.59 | 3,205.47 | 3,393.34 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,542.27 | 1,556.89 | 1,571.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,708.44 | 1,740.98 | 1,773.83 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,869.53 | 1,923.20 | 1,977.89 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,025.67 | 2,103.57 | 2,183.70 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,176.95 | 2,282.10 | 2,391.27 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 57,164.27 | 59,925.32 | 62,792.05 |
| Equity Value (M) | 66,487.13 | 69,532.06 | 72,690.24 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,786.59 | 2,786.59 | 2,786.59 |
| Fair Value | $23.86 | $24.95 | $26.09 |
| Upside / Downside | 279.93% | 297.33% | 315.38% |
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