Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Grandtop Yongxing Group Co., Ltd. (601033.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.03 - $203.17$190.40
Multi-Stage$29.46 - $32.19$30.80
Blended Fair Value$110.60
Current Price$15.78
Upside600.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS35.54%0.00%0.901.570.440.420.270.200.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---42.68%255.47%6.08%54.03%37.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.01%11.10%2.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)917.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)766.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.57114.7368.84
Cash Retained (M)151.08151.08151.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.57-114.73-68.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.5036.3482.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)898.45898.45898.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.040.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.040.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.03$190.40$203.17
Upside / Downside369.17%1,106.60%1,187.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)917.86977.521,041.061,108.731,180.801,257.551,295.27
Payout Ratio83.54%84.83%86.12%87.42%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)766.79829.25896.61969.211,047.461,131.791,198.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)770.14777.44784.74
Year 2 PV (M)773.33788.06802.93
Year 3 PV (M)776.36798.65821.36
Year 4 PV (M)779.23809.20840.02
Year 5 PV (M)781.95819.72858.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,588.3923,679.4224,812.20
Equity Value (M)26,469.4127,672.4928,920.19
Shares Outstanding (M)898.45898.45898.45
Fair Value$29.46$30.80$32.19
Upside / Downside86.70%95.19%103.99%

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