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Definitive Analysis

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Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (600998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.32 - $110.26$103.33
Multi-Stage$15.85 - $17.34$16.58
Blended Fair Value$59.96
Current Price$4.85
Upside1,136.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%11.39%0.310.330.280.330.150.230.190.140.140.09
YoY Growth---4.97%17.77%-17.46%127.96%-35.28%17.86%36.11%-1.72%57.42%-13.04%
Dividend Yield--6.13%5.20%4.98%6.77%2.19%3.59%3.25%1.96%1.98%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,786.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,291.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,494.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)557.33348.33209.00
Cash Retained (M)1,494.751,494.751,494.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-557.33-348.33-209.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)937.411,146.411,285.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,026.155,026.155,026.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.32$103.33$110.26
Upside / Downside772.52%2,030.56%2,173.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,786.652,967.793,160.693,366.143,584.943,817.963,932.50
Payout Ratio46.36%55.09%63.82%72.54%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,291.911,634.912,017.042,441.942,913.553,436.163,637.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,519.201,533.601,548.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,741.641,774.811,808.30
Year 3 PV (M)1,959.302,015.542,072.86
Year 4 PV (M)2,172.262,255.802,341.72
Year 5 PV (M)2,380.592,495.572,614.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,890.8273,266.5776,771.52
Equity Value (M)79,663.8083,341.9087,157.35
Shares Outstanding (M)5,026.155,026.155,026.15
Fair Value$15.85$16.58$17.34
Upside / Downside226.80%241.89%257.54%

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