Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. (600895.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.79 - $135.95$55.23
Multi-Stage$21.06 - $23.06$22.05
Blended Fair Value$38.64
Current Price$54.95
Upside-29.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.31%6.96%0.780.160.530.360.360.320.280.360.290.29
YoY Growth--394.30%-70.24%49.37%-2.02%12.32%15.58%-22.91%26.75%-2.61%-26.31%
Dividend Yield--3.14%0.78%3.22%2.59%2.17%2.66%1.20%2.69%1.66%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,087.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)721.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)366.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)217.60136.0081.60
Cash Retained (M)366.06366.06366.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-217.60-136.00-81.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.47230.06284.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$26.79$55.23$135.95
Upside / Downside-51.25%0.51%147.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,087.981,143.211,201.251,262.231,326.311,393.641,435.45
Payout Ratio66.35%71.08%75.81%80.54%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)721.91812.63910.691,016.621,130.961,254.281,327.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)757.69764.97772.25
Year 2 PV (M)791.72807.01822.44
Year 3 PV (M)824.06848.04872.49
Year 4 PV (M)854.76888.09922.38
Year 5 PV (M)883.88927.17972.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,969.1330,387.8531,861.62
Equity Value (M)33,081.2534,623.1436,223.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
Fair Value$21.06$22.05$23.06
Upside / Downside-61.67%-59.88%-58.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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