Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Star Lake Bioscience Co., Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong (600866.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.78 - $146.23$47.14
Multi-Stage$15.71 - $17.15$16.42
Blended Fair Value$31.78
Current Price$7.59
Upside318.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS122.72%29.16%0.450.090.050.050.010.010.010.020.020.02
YoY Growth--390.19%90.44%-11.89%449.67%21.21%-11.23%-52.30%-16.47%-0.55%-32.98%
Dividend Yield--7.07%2.08%0.79%0.80%0.25%0.15%0.16%0.44%0.33%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,281.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)701.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)579.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)256.21160.1396.08
Cash Retained (M)579.08579.08579.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-256.21-160.13-96.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)322.87418.95483.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.441,661.441,661.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.78$47.14$146.23
Upside / Downside239.66%521.04%1,826.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,281.061,364.331,453.011,547.451,648.041,755.161,807.81
Payout Ratio54.80%61.84%68.88%75.92%82.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)701.97843.661,000.801,174.801,367.201,579.641,672.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)773.66780.99788.32
Year 2 PV (M)841.61857.64873.82
Year 3 PV (M)905.96931.97958.47
Year 4 PV (M)966.851,004.031,042.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,024.391,073.871,125.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,583.6322,626.1223,708.52
Equity Value (M)26,096.0927,274.6228,496.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.441,661.441,661.44
Fair Value$15.71$16.42$17.15
Upside / Downside106.94%116.29%125.98%

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