Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Harbin Hatou Investment Co.,Ltd (600864.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.26 - $3.29$2.76
Multi-Stage$5.46 - $6.02$5.73
Blended Fair Value$4.24
Current Price$7.35
Upside-42.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.41%8.03%0.160.170.280.250.340.280.500.230.150.11
YoY Growth---6.71%-39.43%15.44%-28.09%23.07%-44.65%115.24%51.59%36.26%52.40%
Dividend Yield--2.64%3.23%5.60%4.43%5.66%4.29%6.28%3.63%1.53%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)620.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)185.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.1677.6046.56
Cash Retained (M)435.76435.76435.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.16-77.60-46.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.60358.16389.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,023.752,023.752,023.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-3.78%-2.78%-1.78%
Fair Value$2.26$2.76$3.29
Upside / Downside-69.31%-62.50%-55.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)620.82603.54586.73570.39554.51539.07555.24
Payout Ratio29.81%41.85%53.89%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)185.06252.56316.16376.02432.30485.16513.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-3.78%-2.78%-1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)234.31236.74239.18
Year 2 PV (M)272.11277.79283.54
Year 3 PV (M)300.23309.69319.35
Year 4 PV (M)320.22333.75347.69
Year 5 PV (M)333.40351.09369.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,583.8810,092.3810,622.25
Equity Value (M)11,044.1511,601.4512,181.52
Shares Outstanding (M)2,023.752,023.752,023.75
Fair Value$5.46$5.73$6.02
Upside / Downside-25.75%-22.00%-18.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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