Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenyang Jinbei Automotive Company Limited (600609.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.63 - $0.81$0.72
Multi-Stage$0.77 - $0.84$0.81
Blended Fair Value$0.77
Current Price$4.86
Upside-84.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-33.64%-24.36%0.010.030.040.050.120.110.050.240.200.16
YoY Growth---54.74%-25.67%-12.24%-59.95%8.82%111.33%-78.19%21.15%25.87%-32.21%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.66%0.98%0.96%2.62%2.76%1.24%4.55%2.43%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.1133.8220.29
Cash Retained (M)158.91158.91158.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.11-33.82-20.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.80125.09138.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,303.521,303.521,303.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate17.75%17.75%17.75%
Growth Rate-6.86%-5.86%-4.86%
Fair Value$0.63$0.72$0.81
Upside / Downside-87.07%-85.10%-83.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.55254.71239.79225.75212.53200.08206.09
Payout Ratio41.26%51.01%60.76%70.51%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.64129.93145.69159.16170.56180.07190.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate17.75%17.75%17.75%
Growth Rate-6.86%-5.86%-4.86%
Year 1 PV (M)109.17110.34111.51
Year 2 PV (M)102.85105.07107.32
Year 3 PV (M)94.4197.48100.62
Year 4 PV (M)85.0088.7192.54
Year 5 PV (M)75.4179.5483.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)541.08570.75601.72
Equity Value (M)1,007.921,051.901,097.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,303.521,303.521,303.52
Fair Value$0.77$0.81$0.84
Upside / Downside-84.09%-83.40%-82.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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