Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (600600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$134.05 - $492.90$412.08
Multi-Stage$62.00 - $67.83$64.86
Blended Fair Value$238.47
Current Price$65.92
Upside261.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.11%15.88%1.471.330.810.560.400.350.320.260.290.33
YoY Growth--10.68%63.97%44.84%40.10%13.49%11.11%23.65%-11.67%-13.04%-0.99%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.60%0.67%0.71%0.47%0.77%0.69%0.63%0.88%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,629.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,557.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,071.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)925.89578.68347.21
Cash Retained (M)3,071.783,071.783,071.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-925.89-578.68-347.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,145.892,493.102,724.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$134.05$412.08$492.90
Upside / Downside103.35%525.12%647.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,629.454,930.365,250.835,592.145,955.636,342.746,533.03
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,557.672,214.602,950.353,772.394,688.835,708.476,043.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,049.132,068.552,087.97
Year 2 PV (M)2,525.932,574.042,622.60
Year 3 PV (M)2,988.393,074.183,161.59
Year 4 PV (M)3,436.843,569.013,704.96
Year 5 PV (M)3,871.584,058.584,252.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,936.63105,811.91110,873.77
Equity Value (M)115,808.50121,156.26126,703.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
Fair Value$62.00$64.86$67.83
Upside / Downside-5.95%-1.60%2.90%

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