Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd. (600487.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.94 - $231.19$132.29
Multi-Stage$27.26 - $29.81$28.51
Blended Fair Value$80.40
Current Price$22.97
Upside250.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.01%8.18%0.340.240.170.270.370.500.290.180.190.14
YoY Growth--42.56%40.01%-35.04%-27.68%-25.84%72.02%64.59%-9.06%36.54%-10.21%
Dividend Yield--2.07%1.89%1.14%2.05%3.00%3.06%1.32%0.65%1.05%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,829.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)961.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,868.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)565.97353.73212.24
Cash Retained (M)1,868.591,868.591,868.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-565.97-353.73-212.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,302.621,514.861,656.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,434.252,434.252,434.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.94$132.29$231.19
Upside / Downside134.84%475.92%906.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,829.843,013.783,209.673,418.303,640.493,877.123,993.44
Payout Ratio33.97%45.17%56.38%67.59%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)961.251,361.461,809.642,310.342,868.483,489.413,693.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,256.701,268.611,280.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,541.871,571.231,600.88
Year 3 PV (M)1,817.001,869.161,922.31
Year 4 PV (M)2,082.372,162.452,244.82
Year 5 PV (M)2,338.222,451.162,568.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,312.3460,080.5562,954.71
Equity Value (M)66,348.5069,403.1772,571.66
Shares Outstanding (M)2,434.252,434.252,434.25
Fair Value$27.26$28.51$29.81
Upside / Downside18.66%24.12%29.79%

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