Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (600458.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.96 - $137.80$129.14
Multi-Stage$209.34 - $229.81$219.38
Blended Fair Value$174.26
Current Price$15.11
Upside1,053.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.66%17.76%0.250.140.080.120.020.040.050.100.050.02
YoY Growth--83.22%72.89%-36.00%400.00%-37.50%-20.00%-50.00%100.00%203.44%-66.67%
Dividend Yield--1.84%1.19%0.70%1.16%0.29%0.58%0.49%1.15%0.34%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)568.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)352.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.6771.0442.62
Cash Retained (M)352.48352.48352.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.67-71.04-42.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)238.82281.44309.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)820.20820.20820.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate-15.81%-15.81%-15.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$116.96$129.14$137.80
Upside / Downside674.08%754.68%812.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)568.33605.27644.61686.51731.13778.66802.01
Payout Ratio37.98%48.38%58.79%69.19%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.84292.84378.95475.00581.95700.79741.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-15.81%-15.81%-15.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)344.59347.86351.12
Year 2 PV (M)524.70534.69544.78
Year 3 PV (M)773.91796.13818.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,115.691,158.601,202.73
Year 5 PV (M)1,580.931,657.291,736.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)167,359.17175,442.68183,835.57
Equity Value (M)171,699.00179,937.25188,489.54
Shares Outstanding (M)820.20820.20820.20
Fair Value$209.34$219.38$229.81
Upside / Downside1,285.43%1,351.91%1,420.91%

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