Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. (600426.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.67 - $256.91$89.34
Multi-Stage$30.38 - $33.19$31.76
Blended Fair Value$60.55
Current Price$26.61
Upside127.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.19%18.40%1.040.910.860.290.320.240.230.160.130.19
YoY Growth--13.87%6.39%196.58%-10.21%34.89%6.20%38.64%27.97%-33.19%-1.18%
Dividend Yield--4.71%3.40%2.44%0.89%1.12%1.98%1.80%1.33%1.61%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,227.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,491.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,735.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645.52403.45242.07
Cash Retained (M)1,735.671,735.671,735.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-645.52-403.45-242.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,090.151,332.221,493.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,117.522,117.522,117.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.630.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.630.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.67$89.34$256.91
Upside / Downside86.66%235.72%865.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,227.623,437.413,660.843,898.804,152.224,422.124,554.78
Payout Ratio46.22%54.98%63.73%72.49%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,491.951,889.872,333.232,826.233,373.473,979.904,213.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,732.011,748.431,764.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,959.711,997.042,034.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,175.502,237.962,301.59
Year 4 PV (M)2,379.832,471.352,565.49
Year 5 PV (M)2,573.122,697.402,826.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,515.6556,100.4858,784.23
Equity Value (M)64,335.8367,252.6570,277.31
Shares Outstanding (M)2,117.522,117.522,117.52
Fair Value$30.38$31.76$33.19
Upside / Downside14.18%19.35%24.72%

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