Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd (600409.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.78 - $1.13$0.95
Multi-Stage$2.30 - $2.54$2.42
Blended Fair Value$1.68
Current Price$5.63
Upside-70.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.48%-6.28%0.160.270.360.360.330.410.440.300.300.31
YoY Growth---39.06%-25.29%-0.07%11.43%-19.82%-8.07%46.35%-0.29%-2.95%-1.19%
Dividend Yield--3.00%5.34%5.49%4.51%3.00%8.08%5.88%3.50%3.16%4.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)225.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)183.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.1928.2416.95
Cash Retained (M)42.8742.8742.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.19-28.24-16.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.3214.6225.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,065.712,065.712,065.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate-4.61%-3.61%-2.61%
Fair Value$0.78$0.95$1.13
Upside / Downside-86.19%-83.17%-79.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)225.96217.80209.93202.35195.05188.00193.64
Payout Ratio81.03%82.82%84.62%86.41%88.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)183.09180.39177.64174.86172.04169.20179.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate-4.61%-3.61%-2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)168.21169.97171.74
Year 2 PV (M)154.47157.72161.01
Year 3 PV (M)141.78146.29150.89
Year 4 PV (M)130.09135.63141.34
Year 5 PV (M)119.30125.69132.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,040.554,256.834,482.28
Equity Value (M)4,754.414,992.145,239.61
Shares Outstanding (M)2,065.712,065.712,065.71
Fair Value$2.30$2.42$2.54
Upside / Downside-59.12%-57.08%-54.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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