Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.,Ltd. (600380.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.69 - $74.40$34.42
Multi-Stage$13.07 - $14.30$13.67
Blended Fair Value$24.05
Current Price$12.48
Upside92.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.52%8.79%0.250.260.210.200.190.200.240.200.170.17
YoY Growth---2.64%23.60%1.72%5.97%-3.84%-15.94%21.07%15.61%-1.69%60.90%
Dividend Yield--2.16%2.30%1.58%1.67%1.50%1.75%2.62%1.78%1.98%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,366.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,118.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273.24170.78102.47
Cash Retained (M)1,118.081,118.081,118.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-273.24-170.78-102.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)844.84947.301,015.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,873.281,873.281,873.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.69$34.42$74.40
Upside / Downside65.81%175.78%496.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,366.221,455.031,549.611,650.331,757.601,871.851,928.00
Payout Ratio18.16%32.53%46.90%61.27%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.14473.32726.731,011.081,329.321,684.661,783.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)432.25436.34440.44
Year 2 PV (M)606.07617.61629.26
Year 3 PV (M)770.03792.13814.66
Year 4 PV (M)924.54960.10996.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,070.001,121.681,175.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,689.8821,689.2022,726.78
Equity Value (M)24,492.7625,617.0726,783.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,873.281,873.281,873.28
Fair Value$13.07$13.67$14.30
Upside / Downside4.77%9.58%14.56%

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