Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Yabao Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (600351.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.84 - $6.55$5.02
Multi-Stage$7.33 - $8.04$7.68
Blended Fair Value$6.35
Current Price$6.54
Upside-2.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.96%2.04%0.160.070.110.080.070.340.160.080.160.24
YoY Growth--121.53%-37.18%35.11%22.03%-79.44%112.80%91.74%-47.68%-33.31%82.27%
Dividend Yield--2.60%1.13%1.62%1.01%1.41%6.79%1.91%1.09%1.82%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.5727.8616.71
Cash Retained (M)12.5112.5112.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.57-27.86-16.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.06-15.35-4.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)714.52714.52714.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Fair Value$3.84$5.02$6.55
Upside / Downside-41.21%-23.24%0.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.85225.17227.51229.88232.27234.68241.72
Payout Ratio94.39%93.51%92.63%91.75%90.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.34210.55210.75210.92211.08211.22223.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Year 1 PV (M)195.69197.64199.60
Year 2 PV (M)182.04185.69189.39
Year 3 PV (M)169.32174.45179.68
Year 4 PV (M)157.48163.87170.46
Year 5 PV (M)146.46153.93161.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,388.674,612.444,845.25
Equity Value (M)5,239.655,488.035,746.07
Shares Outstanding (M)714.52714.52714.52
Fair Value$7.33$7.68$8.04
Upside / Downside12.13%17.44%22.97%

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