Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600285.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.21 - $280.38$262.76
Multi-Stage$41.66 - $45.56$43.57
Blended Fair Value$153.17
Current Price$21.92
Upside598.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.64%20.53%0.800.610.510.390.320.170.190.170.160.06
YoY Growth--31.10%19.20%29.05%24.96%82.19%-6.69%6.62%11.22%176.61%-53.94%
Dividend Yield--3.78%2.87%3.28%2.98%3.58%2.09%2.06%1.78%1.33%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)799.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)512.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)286.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.9299.9559.97
Cash Retained (M)286.96286.96286.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.92-99.95-59.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.04187.01226.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.17567.17567.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.330.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.330.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.21$262.76$280.38
Upside / Downside425.61%1,098.71%1,179.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)799.61851.58906.94965.891,028.671,095.541,128.40
Payout Ratio64.11%69.29%74.47%79.65%84.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)512.65590.06675.37769.28872.55985.981,043.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)548.68553.88559.08
Year 2 PV (M)583.96595.08606.31
Year 3 PV (M)618.51636.26654.35
Year 4 PV (M)652.33677.42703.22
Year 5 PV (M)685.44718.54752.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,539.4421,531.5022,561.53
Equity Value (M)23,628.3524,712.6825,837.41
Shares Outstanding (M)567.17567.17567.17
Fair Value$41.66$43.57$45.56
Upside / Downside90.06%98.78%107.83%

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