Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. (600109.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.28 - $52.13$27.44
Multi-Stage$11.38 - $12.44$11.90
Blended Fair Value$19.67
Current Price$10.23
Upside92.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.26%28.59%0.350.210.260.210.140.120.110.090.150.04
YoY Growth--64.31%-17.48%24.90%42.36%22.90%3.40%28.80%-39.60%231.39%56.54%
Dividend Yield--4.15%2.44%2.86%2.14%1.07%1.28%1.01%1.04%1.07%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,476.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)516.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,960.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)495.39309.62185.77
Cash Retained (M)1,960.871,960.871,960.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-495.39-309.62-185.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,465.481,651.251,775.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,687.473,687.473,687.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.28$27.44$52.13
Upside / Downside68.89%168.20%409.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,476.952,637.952,809.422,992.033,186.523,393.643,495.45
Payout Ratio20.84%34.67%48.50%62.33%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)516.08914.531,362.601,865.062,427.083,054.283,233.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)832.81840.71848.60
Year 2 PV (M)1,129.971,151.491,173.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,408.431,448.871,490.06
Year 4 PV (M)1,669.071,733.261,799.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,912.712,005.092,101.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,022.7636,714.3738,470.73
Equity Value (M)41,975.7643,893.7945,882.90
Shares Outstanding (M)3,687.473,687.473,687.47
Fair Value$11.38$11.90$12.44
Upside / Downside11.27%16.36%21.63%

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