DDM Analysis: 600036.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$324.51 - $1,171.04	$1,032.50
Multi-Stage	$149.03 - $163.02	$155.90
Blended Fair Value	$594.20
Current Price	$45.95
Upside	1,193.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.86%	13.47%	2.19	1.92	1.73	1.41	1.27	1.01	0.91	0.74	0.69	0.67
YoY Growth	-	-	14.31%	10.93%	23.02%	10.51%	26.44%	11.09%	22.40%	7.25%	2.99%	8.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.06%	5.88%	5.04%	3.00%	2.49%	3.12%	2.66%	2.54%	3.59%	4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	148,578.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	58,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	90,578.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29,715.60	18,572.25	11,143.35
Cash Retained (M)	90,578.00	90,578.00	90,578.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29,715.60	-18,572.25	-11,143.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	60,862.40	72,005.75	79,434.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	25,232.71	25,232.71	25,232.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.41	2.85	3.15
LTM Dividend per Share	2.30	2.30	2.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.41	2.85	3.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.71	5.15	5.45
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$324.51	$1,032.50	$1,171.04
Upside / Downside	606.23%	2,147.02%	2,448.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	148,578.00	158,235.57	168,520.88	179,474.74	191,140.60	203,564.74	209,671.68
Payout Ratio	39.04%	49.23%	59.42%	69.61%	79.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	58,000.00	77,898.40	100,138.55	124,940.79	152,544.24	183,208.26	193,946.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	72,097.47	72,780.86	73,464.25
Year 2 PV (M)	85,779.64	87,413.50	89,062.78
Year 3 PV (M)	99,055.52	101,899.04	104,796.48
Year 4 PV (M)	111,933.92	116,238.58	120,666.22
Year 5 PV (M)	124,423.50	130,433.20	136,672.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,267,219.77	3,425,027.70	3,588,875.32
Equity Value (M)	3,760,509.81	3,933,792.89	4,113,537.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	25,232.71	25,232.71	25,232.71
Fair Value	$149.03	$155.90	$163.02
Upside / Downside	224.34%	239.28%	254.79%

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China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. (600036.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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