Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $7.31 - $11.73 | $9.31 |
| Multi-Stage | $13.53 - $14.85 | $14.17 |
| Blended Fair Value | $11.74 | |
| Current Price | $3.98 | |
| Upside | 195.01% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.49% | 16.78% | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.54 | 0.24 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -4.59% | 34.79% | 122.30% | -64.09% | 4.90% | 23.02% | -0.21% | 24.14% | 79.98% | 59.74% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 17.95% | 18.25% | 15.78% | 6.41% | 13.50% | 11.39% | 8.18% | 7.95% | 6.03% | 3.12% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 30,352.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 18,549.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11,803.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 6,070.40 | 3,794.00 | 2,276.40 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11,803.00 | 11,803.00 | 11,803.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -6,070.40 | -3,794.00 | -2,276.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,732.60 | 8,009.00 | 9,526.60 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 43,840.74 | 43,840.74 | 43,840.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -0.51% | 0.49% | 1.49% |
| Fair Value | $7.31 | $9.31 | $11.73 |
| Upside / Downside | 83.63% | 133.89% | 194.80% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 30,352.00 | 30,501.20 | 30,651.14 | 30,801.81 | 30,953.22 | 31,105.38 | 32,038.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.11% | 66.89% | 72.67% | 78.45% | 84.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 18,549.00 | 20,402.36 | 22,273.50 | 24,162.53 | 26,069.60 | 27,994.84 | 29,635.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -0.51% | 0.49% | 1.49% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 18,872.39 | 19,062.08 | 19,251.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 19,058.17 | 19,443.21 | 19,832.10 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 19,124.13 | 19,706.61 | 20,300.79 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 19,086.23 | 19,865.23 | 20,667.83 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 18,958.77 | 19,930.90 | 20,942.51 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 497,871.44 | 523,400.27 | 549,965.75 |
| Equity Value (M) | 592,971.14 | 621,408.30 | 650,960.74 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 43,840.74 | 43,840.74 | 43,840.74 |
| Fair Value | $13.53 | $14.17 | $14.85 |
| Upside / Downside | 239.84% | 256.14% | 273.07% |
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