Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $28.04 - $137.76 | $49.94 |
| Multi-Stage | $25.57 - $28.01 | $26.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $38.36 | |
| Current Price | $7.06 | |
| Upside | 443.29% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.57% | -0.39% | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 0.87 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 22.80% | -10.42% | -13.82% | 9.95% | 3.70% | 5.50% | -13.56% | -12.63% | 16.94% | -4.55% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 12.63% | 7.74% | 9.27% | 13.34% | 19.01% | 17.24% | 11.49% | 12.91% | 14.13% | 10.89% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 14,563.48 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 8,358.11 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 6,205.37 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,912.70 | 1,820.44 | 1,092.26 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 6,205.37 | 6,205.37 | 6,205.37 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,912.70 | -1,820.44 | -1,092.26 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,292.68 | 4,384.94 | 5,113.11 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 16,377.96 | 16,377.96 | 16,377.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 3.70% | 4.70% | 5.70% |
| Fair Value | $28.04 | $49.94 | $137.76 |
| Upside / Downside | 297.14% | 607.43% | 1,851.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 14,563.48 | 15,248.61 | 15,965.97 | 16,717.08 | 17,503.52 | 18,326.96 | 18,876.77 |
| Payout Ratio | 57.39% | 63.91% | 70.43% | 76.96% | 83.48% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 8,358.11 | 9,745.80 | 11,245.56 | 12,864.85 | 14,611.62 | 16,494.27 | 17,461.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 3.70% | 4.70% | 5.70% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 9,077.60 | 9,165.13 | 9,252.67 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 9,756.37 | 9,945.43 | 10,136.31 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 10,395.99 | 10,699.64 | 11,009.14 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 10,997.98 | 11,428.36 | 11,871.25 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 11,563.82 | 12,132.21 | 12,722.74 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 367,000.43 | 385,039.53 | 403,781.09 |
| Equity Value (M) | 418,792.20 | 438,410.31 | 458,773.21 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 16,377.96 | 16,377.96 | 16,377.96 |
| Fair Value | $25.57 | $26.77 | $28.01 |
| Upside / Downside | 262.19% | 279.15% | 296.77% |
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