Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tailyn Technologies, Inc. (5353.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.30 - $22.55$18.08
Multi-Stage$29.33 - $32.18$30.73
Blended Fair Value$24.40
Current Price$26.25
Upside-7.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS4.86%0.00%1.441.220.920.861.371.140.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--18.33%33.33%5.88%-37.04%20.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.93%3.30%1.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.1813.237.94
Cash Retained (M)8.388.388.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.18-13.23-7.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.80-4.860.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.7573.7573.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.070.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.070.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$14.30$18.08$22.55
Upside / Downside-45.52%-31.14%-14.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.88105.78105.69105.59105.50105.40108.56
Payout Ratio92.09%91.67%91.25%90.84%90.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.5096.9796.4495.9195.3994.86100.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)89.8490.7591.66
Year 2 PV (M)82.7984.4786.17
Year 3 PV (M)76.2878.6281.00
Year 4 PV (M)70.2973.1776.15
Year 5 PV (M)64.7668.1071.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,779.361,871.151,966.69
Equity Value (M)2,163.322,266.262,373.24
Shares Outstanding (M)73.7573.7573.75
Fair Value$29.33$30.73$32.18
Upside / Downside11.74%17.06%22.59%

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