Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Simplex Holdings, Inc. (4373.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$272.52 - $384.56$327.99
Multi-Stage$406.60 - $446.03$425.94
Blended Fair Value$376.96
Current Price$1,086.25
Upside-65.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202013
DPS0.00%0.00%10.416.095.440.000.000.001.180.000.000.00
YoY Growth--70.79%12.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.88%0.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,964.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,847.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,117.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,992.801,245.50747.30
Cash Retained (M)7,117.007,117.007,117.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,992.80-1,245.50-747.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,124.205,871.506,369.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.88234.88234.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.8225.0027.12
LTM Dividend per Share12.1212.1212.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.8225.0027.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend33.9437.1239.24
WACC / Discount Rate10.20%10.20%10.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$272.52$327.99$384.56
Upside / Downside-74.91%-69.81%-64.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,964.009,864.369,765.729,668.069,571.389,475.669,759.93
Payout Ratio28.57%40.86%53.14%65.43%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,847.004,030.415,189.866,325.737,438.368,528.109,027.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.20%10.20%10.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,620.293,657.233,694.18
Year 2 PV (M)4,187.414,273.304,360.07
Year 3 PV (M)4,584.524,726.304,870.98
Year 4 PV (M)4,842.345,043.035,249.90
Year 5 PV (M)4,986.845,246.515,516.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,283.1777,099.2081,072.56
Equity Value (M)95,504.58100,045.59104,764.58
Shares Outstanding (M)234.88234.88234.88
Fair Value$406.60$425.94$446.03
Upside / Downside-62.57%-60.79%-58.94%

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