Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.53 - $8.54 | $6.93 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.85 - $14.12 | $13.47 |
| Blended Fair Value | $10.20 | |
| Current Price | $5.57 | |
| Upside | 83.12% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -18.04% | 0.00% | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -21.38% | -49.73% | -5.91% | 11.39% | -10.70% | 20.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.68% | 4.27% | 6.86% | 5.86% | 5.96% | 7.12% | 7.39% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 64.33 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 53.15 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 12.87 | 8.04 | 4.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11.17 | 11.17 | 11.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -12.87 | -8.04 | -4.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -1.69 | 3.13 | 6.35 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 107.51 | 107.51 | 107.51 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $5.53 | $6.93 | $8.54 |
| Upside / Downside | -0.71% | 24.37% | 53.29% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 64.33 | 63.68 | 63.05 | 62.42 | 61.79 | 61.18 | 63.01 |
| Payout Ratio | 82.63% | 84.10% | 85.58% | 87.05% | 88.53% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 53.15 | 53.56 | 53.96 | 54.34 | 54.70 | 55.06 | 58.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 49.79 | 50.30 | 50.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 46.63 | 47.59 | 48.55 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 43.65 | 45.00 | 46.38 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 40.86 | 42.55 | 44.30 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 38.23 | 40.22 | 42.29 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,162.15 | 1,222.67 | 1,285.68 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,381.31 | 1,448.33 | 1,518.01 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 107.51 | 107.51 | 107.51 |
| Fair Value | $12.85 | $13.47 | $14.12 |
| Upside / Downside | 130.67% | 141.87% | 153.50% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
| TQ5.SI | Frasers Property Limited | 3.98% | $0.05 | 60.69% |
| 007860.KS | Seoyon Co., Ltd. | 3.97% | $381.92 | 8.19% |
| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
| 003012.SZ | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3.92% | $0.26 | 78.10% |
| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
| 82800.HK | Tracker Fund of Hong Kong | 3.92% | $0.93 | 12.85% |
| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
| PBP.AX | Probiotec Limited | 3.91% | $0.12 | 41.70% |
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