Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd. (4207.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.71 - $321.09$299.74
Multi-Stage$53.97 - $59.10$56.49
Blended Fair Value$178.11
Current Price$19.00
Upside837.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.47%0.00%0.380.310.330.530.300.250.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.71%-5.06%-38.46%74.08%21.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.80%2.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7540.4724.28
Cash Retained (M)125.19125.19125.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.75-40.47-24.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.4584.73100.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.68198.68198.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Fair Value$90.71$299.74$321.09
Upside / Downside377.44%1,477.56%1,589.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.73341.60360.45380.35401.34423.49436.19
Payout Ratio61.33%67.06%72.80%78.53%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.54229.08262.40298.69338.19381.14403.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Year 1 PV (M)214.03216.07218.12
Year 2 PV (M)229.04233.44237.89
Year 3 PV (M)243.58250.64257.83
Year 4 PV (M)257.66267.67277.96
Year 5 PV (M)271.30284.53298.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,506.749,970.3110,451.79
Equity Value (M)10,722.3411,222.6511,741.85
Shares Outstanding (M)198.68198.68198.68
Fair Value$53.97$56.49$59.10
Upside / Downside184.04%197.30%211.05%

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