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Definitive Analysis

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Al-Dawaa Medical Services Company (4163.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$332.82 - $867.19$812.69
Multi-Stage$125.62 - $137.38$131.40
Blended Fair Value$472.04
Current Price$78.30
Upside502.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS8.90%0.00%2.502.501.254.131.731.641.310.980.000.00
YoY Growth---0.01%101.16%-69.87%138.64%5.92%25.23%32.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.22%2.69%1.56%5.55%2.20%2.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)370.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.1346.3327.80
Cash Retained (M)156.90156.90156.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.13-46.33-27.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.77110.57129.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.0085.0085.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.301.52
LTM Dividend per Share2.512.512.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.301.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$332.82$812.69$867.19
Upside / Downside325.05%937.91%1,007.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)370.64394.73420.39447.72476.82507.81523.05
Payout Ratio57.67%64.14%70.60%77.07%83.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.75253.16296.80345.04398.30457.03483.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)235.25237.48239.71
Year 2 PV (M)256.28261.16266.09
Year 3 PV (M)276.85284.80292.89
Year 4 PV (M)296.96308.38320.13
Year 5 PV (M)316.63331.93347.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,295.909,744.9010,211.08
Equity Value (M)10,677.8711,168.6411,677.70
Shares Outstanding (M)85.0085.0085.00
Fair Value$125.62$131.40$137.38
Upside / Downside60.44%67.81%75.46%

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