Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Excelsior Medical Co., Ltd. (4104.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$184.45 - $931.57$381.79
Multi-Stage$105.62 - $115.28$110.36
Blended Fair Value$246.07
Current Price$85.80
Upside186.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.99%10.10%3.443.152.882.882.712.242.081.861.771.64
YoY Growth--9.32%9.50%0.00%6.06%21.16%7.41%12.18%4.80%7.82%25.00%
Dividend Yield--4.12%3.57%4.18%5.28%5.61%5.37%5.17%4.74%4.74%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)804.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)620.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)183.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.83100.5260.31
Cash Retained (M)183.23183.23183.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.83-100.52-60.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.4082.71122.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.67171.67171.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.480.72
LTM Dividend per Share3.623.623.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.480.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.754.104.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$184.45$381.79$931.57
Upside / Downside114.98%344.97%985.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)804.14856.41912.07971.361,034.501,101.741,134.79
Payout Ratio77.21%79.77%82.33%84.89%87.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)620.91683.17750.90824.54904.59991.561,049.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)628.70634.66640.62
Year 2 PV (M)635.93648.05660.27
Year 3 PV (M)642.63661.08679.87
Year 4 PV (M)648.81673.76699.42
Year 5 PV (M)654.48686.10718.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,921.2715,641.9716,390.26
Equity Value (M)18,131.8218,945.6119,789.36
Shares Outstanding (M)171.67171.67171.67
Fair Value$105.62$110.36$115.28
Upside / Downside23.10%28.63%34.35%

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