Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Al Hammadi Holding Company (4007.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.99 - $46.88$33.90
Multi-Stage$38.08 - $41.71$39.86
Blended Fair Value$36.88
Current Price$34.42
Upside7.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.401.041.240.820.000.000.560.000.560.47
YoY Growth--34.52%-16.04%51.17%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%20.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.40%1.80%2.55%2.42%0.00%0.00%3.00%0.00%1.84%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.1133.1919.92
Cash Retained (M)41.7841.7841.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.11-33.19-19.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.338.5921.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.26160.26160.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.050.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.050.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$24.99$33.90$46.88
Upside / Downside-27.41%-1.52%36.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.55272.04278.70285.51292.50299.65308.64
Payout Ratio84.27%85.41%86.56%87.71%88.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.77232.36241.24250.42259.90269.69285.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)215.38217.51219.63
Year 2 PV (M)207.28211.39215.53
Year 3 PV (M)199.45205.40211.48
Year 4 PV (M)191.87199.55207.46
Year 5 PV (M)184.56193.84203.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,103.695,360.255,627.02
Equity Value (M)6,102.246,387.936,684.60
Shares Outstanding (M)160.26160.26160.26
Fair Value$38.08$39.86$41.71
Upside / Downside10.62%15.80%21.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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