Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1.96 - $3.02 | $2.45 |
| Multi-Stage | $4.46 - $4.91 | $4.68 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3.57 | |
| Current Price | $1.15 | |
| Upside | 210.30% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -13.54% | 0.00% | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -58.00% | -12.28% | -24.17% | 15.46% | 49.81% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.82% | 6.34% | 3.99% | 3.19% | 2.24% | 3.86% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,760.61 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,061.91 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 698.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 352.12 | 220.08 | 132.05 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 698.70 | 698.70 | 698.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -352.12 | -220.08 | -132.05 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 346.58 | 478.62 | 566.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 8,299.84 | 8,299.84 | 8,299.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $1.96 | $2.45 | $3.02 |
| Upside / Downside | 70.34% | 113.33% | 162.90% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,760.61 | 1,743.01 | 1,725.58 | 1,708.32 | 1,691.24 | 1,674.33 | 1,724.55 |
| Payout Ratio | 60.32% | 66.25% | 72.19% | 78.13% | 84.06% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,061.91 | 1,154.78 | 1,245.68 | 1,334.64 | 1,421.70 | 1,506.89 | 1,595.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,073.45 | 1,084.40 | 1,095.35 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,076.39 | 1,098.47 | 1,120.77 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,072.04 | 1,105.20 | 1,139.03 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,061.55 | 1,105.54 | 1,150.89 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,045.91 | 1,100.37 | 1,157.08 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 31,725.94 | 33,377.98 | 35,098.14 |
| Equity Value (M) | 37,055.27 | 38,871.96 | 40,761.26 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 8,299.84 | 8,299.84 | 8,299.84 |
| Fair Value | $4.46 | $4.68 | $4.91 |
| Upside / Downside | 288.22% | 307.26% | 327.05% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
| 003012.SZ | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3.92% | $0.26 | 78.10% |
| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
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| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
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