Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.25 - $8.16 | $6.59 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.47 - $13.72 | $13.08 |
| Blended Fair Value | $9.84 | |
| Current Price | $3.14 | |
| Upside | 213.35% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.15% | 0.00% | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -11.85% | -25.70% | -11.50% | 38.66% | -34.91% | 126.41% | 29.65% | 1,307.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.02% | 4.31% | 5.17% | 4.23% | 3.09% | 4.16% | 2.90% | 2.23% | 0.15% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,619.54 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,549.33 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,070.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,523.91 | 952.44 | 571.47 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,070.21 | 2,070.21 | 2,070.21 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,523.91 | -952.44 | -571.47 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 546.30 | 1,117.76 | 1,498.74 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 13,694.12 | 13,694.12 | 13,694.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $5.25 | $6.59 | $8.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 67.19% | 110.00% | 159.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,619.54 | 7,543.34 | 7,467.91 | 7,393.23 | 7,319.30 | 7,246.10 | 7,463.49 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.83% | 76.26% | 79.70% | 83.13% | 86.57% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,549.33 | 5,752.87 | 5,951.79 | 6,146.15 | 6,336.03 | 6,521.49 | 6,903.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,356.78 | 5,411.44 | 5,466.10 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,160.42 | 5,266.27 | 5,373.20 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,962.03 | 5,115.48 | 5,272.07 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,763.12 | 4,960.53 | 5,164.02 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,565.00 | 4,802.71 | 5,050.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 146,019.59 | 153,623.17 | 161,540.25 |
| Equity Value (M) | 170,826.93 | 179,179.60 | 187,865.84 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 13,694.12 | 13,694.12 | 13,694.12 |
| Fair Value | $12.47 | $13.08 | $13.72 |
| Upside / Downside | 297.28% | 316.70% | 336.90% |
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