Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Broadleaf Co., Ltd. (3673.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.02 - $48.25$42.94
Multi-Stage$83.10 - $92.03$87.47
Blended Fair Value$65.20
Current Price$735.00
Upside-91.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-39.93%-19.58%0.970.964.5010.1112.4612.3410.5111.417.836.25
YoY Growth--0.47%-78.63%-55.53%-18.87%0.93%17.43%-7.83%45.70%25.22%-26.71%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.19%1.10%2.74%2.29%2.63%1.81%2.16%2.05%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,054.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)404.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)650.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.99131.8779.12
Cash Retained (M)650.08650.08650.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.99-131.87-79.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)439.08518.20570.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.0092.0092.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.775.636.21
LTM Dividend per Share4.404.404.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.775.636.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.1710.0310.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-12.86%-11.86%-10.86%
Fair Value$37.02$42.94$48.25
Upside / Downside-94.96%-94.16%-93.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,054.97929.83819.53722.32636.64561.12577.95
Payout Ratio38.38%48.70%59.03%69.35%79.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)404.90452.86483.75500.94507.25505.01534.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-12.86%-11.86%-10.86%
Year 1 PV (M)411.77416.49421.22
Year 2 PV (M)399.94409.17418.51
Year 3 PV (M)376.57389.68403.10
Year 4 PV (M)346.71362.90379.65
Year 5 PV (M)313.85332.28351.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,796.166,136.476,492.57
Equity Value (M)7,645.008,047.008,466.62
Shares Outstanding (M)92.0092.0092.00
Fair Value$83.10$87.47$92.03
Upside / Downside-88.69%-88.10%-87.48%

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