Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AGS Corporation (3648.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,279.97 - $2,232.88$1,687.14
Multi-Stage$1,272.25 - $1,392.24$1,331.14
Blended Fair Value$1,509.14
Current Price$958.00
Upside57.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.63%5.41%16.1012.5611.6513.7711.6611.6811.6811.6411.1110.07
YoY Growth--28.20%7.78%-15.37%18.07%-0.17%0.04%0.30%4.78%10.34%5.89%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.19%1.53%1.88%1.31%1.39%1.76%1.34%1.38%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,601.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)265.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,335.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.37200.23120.14
Cash Retained (M)1,335.921,335.921,335.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.37-200.23-120.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,015.551,135.691,215.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.7916.7916.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share60.4867.6472.41
LTM Dividend per Share15.8415.8415.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share60.4867.6472.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.3283.4788.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Fair Value$1,279.97$1,687.14$2,232.88
Upside / Downside33.61%76.11%133.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,601.861,672.461,746.171,823.121,903.471,987.362,046.98
Payout Ratio16.60%31.28%45.96%60.64%75.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)265.94523.17802.561,105.551,433.701,788.631,893.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)472.89477.46482.03
Year 2 PV (M)655.71668.45681.32
Year 3 PV (M)816.45840.37864.75
Year 4 PV (M)957.03994.591,033.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,079.211,132.411,187.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,381.2918,238.1319,128.44
Equity Value (M)21,362.5822,351.4223,377.47
Shares Outstanding (M)16.7916.7916.79
Fair Value$1,272.25$1,331.14$1,392.24
Upside / Downside32.80%38.95%45.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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