Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Otsuka Information Technology Corp. (3570.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$633.05 - $2,867.22$1,456.92
Multi-Stage$335.61 - $366.73$350.89
Blended Fair Value$903.90
Current Price$205.50
Upside339.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.67%0.00%7.967.475.975.185.482.991.272.993.480.00
YoY Growth--6.67%25.00%15.39%-5.46%83.33%134.38%-57.33%-14.29%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.69%4.53%5.17%6.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)247.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.5230.9518.57
Cash Retained (M)110.80110.80110.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.52-30.95-18.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.2979.8592.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.1717.1717.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.574.655.37
LTM Dividend per Share7.967.967.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.574.655.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.5312.6213.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$633.05$1,456.92$2,867.22
Upside / Downside208.05%608.96%1,295.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)247.58263.67280.81299.06318.50339.20349.38
Payout Ratio55.25%62.20%69.15%76.10%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.78163.99194.17227.58264.51305.28323.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)151.23152.66154.10
Year 2 PV (M)165.12168.27171.44
Year 3 PV (M)178.47183.59188.81
Year 4 PV (M)191.29198.64206.21
Year 5 PV (M)203.59213.42223.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,873.605,109.005,353.41
Equity Value (M)5,763.306,025.586,297.60
Shares Outstanding (M)17.1717.1717.17
Fair Value$335.61$350.89$366.73
Upside / Downside63.32%70.75%78.46%

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