Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Sector

Auras Technology Co., Ltd. (3324.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$582.40 - $1,752.71$924.24
Multi-Stage$393.33 - $429.42$411.05
Blended Fair Value$667.65
Current Price$840.00
Upside-20.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.46%35.07%6.146.025.555.184.651.351.752.990.760.15
YoY Growth--2.08%8.33%7.14%11.42%245.56%-23.01%-41.61%291.60%400.01%-49.67%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.83%2.52%2.53%2.11%1.06%1.34%4.04%0.83%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,109.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)902.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,207.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.98263.74158.24
Cash Retained (M)1,207.291,207.291,207.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.98-263.74-158.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)785.31943.551,049.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.0393.0393.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.4410.1411.28
LTM Dividend per Share9.709.709.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.4410.1411.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.1419.8420.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$582.40$924.24$1,752.71
Upside / Downside-30.67%10.03%108.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,109.922,247.072,393.132,548.682,714.342,890.782,977.50
Payout Ratio42.78%52.22%61.67%71.11%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)902.631,173.511,475.801,812.422,186.572,601.702,754.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,068.601,078.731,088.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,223.721,247.031,270.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,368.491,407.771,447.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,503.391,561.201,620.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,628.891,707.571,789.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,798.7131,238.0032,732.38
Equity Value (M)36,591.8038,240.3039,949.51
Shares Outstanding (M)93.0393.0393.03
Fair Value$393.33$411.05$429.42
Upside / Downside-53.18%-51.07%-48.88%

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