Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Prologis REIT, Inc. (3283.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$935,298.01 - $2,484,446.46$2,328,290.17
Multi-Stage$356,554.47 - $389,993.99$372,968.14
Blended Fair Value$1,350,629.16
Current Price$77,000.00
Upside1,654.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%6,897.126,319.636,113.605,789.645,246.800.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.14%3.37%5.60%10.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.76%6.76%5.43%4.70%4.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52,856.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28,015.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,840.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,571.266,607.043,964.22
Cash Retained (M)24,840.8124,840.8124,840.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,571.26-6,607.04-3,964.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,269.5518,233.7720,876.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.234.234.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share3,372.594,309.524,934.15
LTM Dividend per Share6,621.426,621.426,621.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share3,372.594,309.524,934.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend9,994.0010,930.9411,555.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$935,298.01$2,328,290.17$2,484,446.46
Upside / Downside1,114.67%2,923.75%3,126.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52,856.3056,291.9659,950.9363,847.7467,997.8572,417.7174,590.24
Payout Ratio53.00%60.40%67.80%75.20%82.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28,015.4934,001.7540,647.8648,014.3056,166.6565,175.9468,995.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31,588.9831,888.4032,187.83
Year 2 PV (M)35,083.7935,752.0336,426.59
Year 3 PV (M)38,501.1639,606.3940,732.57
Year 4 PV (M)41,842.3643,451.5045,106.61
Year 5 PV (M)45,108.6047,287.3649,549.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,316,471.881,380,057.971,446,077.64
Equity Value (M)1,508,596.781,578,043.661,650,080.75
Shares Outstanding (M)4.234.234.23
Fair Value$356,554.47$372,968.14$389,993.99
Upside / Downside363.06%384.37%406.49%

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