Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Universal Vision Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (3218.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$547.37 - $2,077.04$1,594.50
Multi-Stage$265.61 - $290.15$277.66
Blended Fair Value$936.08
Current Price$202.00
Upside363.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS44.19%0.00%6.985.644.483.761.791.120.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--23.67%26.00%19.05%110.00%60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.52%2.04%1.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)635.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)252.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.57110.9866.59
Cash Retained (M)252.42252.42252.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.57-110.98-66.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.85141.43185.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.0185.0185.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.662.19
LTM Dividend per Share7.477.477.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.662.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.369.149.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$547.37$1,594.50$2,077.04
Upside / Downside170.97%689.36%928.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.85945.561,007.031,072.481,142.191,216.441,252.93
Payout Ratio71.57%75.26%78.94%82.63%86.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)635.44711.59794.97886.17985.871,094.791,158.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)658.12664.36670.59
Year 2 PV (M)679.97692.92706.00
Year 3 PV (M)701.02721.15741.65
Year 4 PV (M)721.28749.02777.55
Year 5 PV (M)740.78776.56813.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,078.4519,999.9520,956.71
Equity Value (M)22,579.6223,603.9524,666.21
Shares Outstanding (M)85.0185.0185.01
Fair Value$265.61$277.66$290.15
Upside / Downside31.49%37.45%43.64%

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