Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Mildef Crete Inc. (3213.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.74 - $105.05$85.73
Multi-Stage$144.21 - $158.34$151.14
Blended Fair Value$118.43
Current Price$114.00
Upside3.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.04%0.00%5.333.563.654.444.152.773.953.363.060.00
YoY Growth--50.00%-2.70%-17.78%7.14%50.00%-30.00%17.65%9.68%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.62%3.92%6.92%7.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)455.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)352.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.1956.9934.20
Cash Retained (M)103.84103.84103.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.19-56.99-34.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.6546.8469.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.4159.4159.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.791.17
LTM Dividend per Share5.935.935.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.791.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.146.717.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.77%-0.77%0.23%
Fair Value$68.74$85.73$105.05
Upside / Downside-39.70%-24.80%-7.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)455.95452.46449.00445.56442.15438.77451.93
Payout Ratio77.23%79.78%82.34%84.89%87.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)352.11360.98369.68378.24386.64394.89418.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.77%-0.77%0.23%
Year 1 PV (M)333.94337.34340.74
Year 2 PV (M)316.38322.85329.39
Year 3 PV (M)299.45308.69318.11
Year 4 PV (M)283.17294.88306.95
Year 5 PV (M)267.55281.45295.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,067.267,434.387,816.59
Equity Value (M)8,567.758,979.589,407.70
Shares Outstanding (M)59.4159.4159.41
Fair Value$144.21$151.14$158.34
Upside / Downside26.50%32.58%38.90%

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