Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing COSMOS Chemical Co., Ltd. (300856.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.00 - $61.26$57.41
Multi-Stage$97.82 - $107.36$102.50
Blended Fair Value$79.96
Current Price$13.15
Upside508.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS70.00%0.00%1.120.410.080.040.060.080.050.060.120.00
YoY Growth--171.63%400.00%100.00%-26.20%-29.17%45.90%-4.23%-52.65%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.47%1.40%0.43%0.42%0.46%0.75%0.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.2515.789.47
Cash Retained (M)20.7120.7120.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.25-15.78-9.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.544.9311.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.79409.79409.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate-16.57%-16.57%-16.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.00$57.41$61.26
Upside / Downside295.43%336.60%365.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.23134.44143.18152.49162.40172.95178.14
Payout Ratio83.60%84.88%86.16%87.44%88.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.53114.11123.36133.33144.08155.66164.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-16.57%-16.57%-16.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)135.49136.78138.06
Year 2 PV (M)173.93177.24180.59
Year 3 PV (M)223.23229.63236.16
Year 4 PV (M)286.43297.44308.77
Year 5 PV (M)367.45385.19403.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,898.2940,777.0942,727.80
Equity Value (M)40,084.8142,003.3843,995.01
Shares Outstanding (M)409.79409.79409.79
Fair Value$97.82$102.50$107.36
Upside / Downside643.86%679.47%716.43%

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