Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300705.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.43 - $85.85$41.63
Multi-Stage$16.55 - $18.08$17.30
Blended Fair Value$29.47
Current Price$16.45
Upside79.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.51%40.48%0.230.190.140.030.020.030.030.000.020.00
YoY Growth--22.29%36.53%361.64%77.69%-45.46%-0.27%2,195.40%-94.51%1,234.93%-76.12%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.70%0.68%0.23%0.12%0.53%0.41%0.01%0.46%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)469.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)310.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.8058.6335.18
Cash Retained (M)310.98310.98310.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.80-58.63-35.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.18252.35275.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)506.64506.64506.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.43$41.63$85.85
Upside / Downside54.60%153.07%421.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)469.00499.49531.96566.53603.36642.58661.85
Payout Ratio33.69%44.96%56.22%67.48%78.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.03224.55299.05382.28475.08578.32612.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)204.88206.82208.76
Year 2 PV (M)248.95253.69258.48
Year 3 PV (M)290.36298.70307.19
Year 4 PV (M)329.23341.89354.92
Year 5 PV (M)365.67383.33401.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,947.057,282.607,630.99
Equity Value (M)8,386.148,767.039,162.00
Shares Outstanding (M)506.64506.64506.64
Fair Value$16.55$17.30$18.08
Upside / Downside0.62%5.19%9.93%

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