Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Songcheng Performance Development Co.,Ltd (300144.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.11 - $26.11$13.11
Multi-Stage$5.53 - $6.03$5.77
Blended Fair Value$9.44
Current Price$8.76
Upside7.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.88%16.94%0.100.050.050.060.110.070.070.060.050.03
YoY Growth--86.95%-0.82%-0.55%-51.44%70.91%-1.70%13.14%25.39%49.43%49.97%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.50%0.34%0.42%0.53%0.48%0.52%0.52%0.44%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)794.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)527.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)267.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.9199.3259.59
Cash Retained (M)267.27267.27267.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.91-99.32-59.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.35167.95207.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,619.362,619.362,619.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.11$13.11$26.11
Upside / Downside-7.38%49.71%198.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)794.57846.22901.22959.801,022.191,088.631,121.29
Payout Ratio66.36%71.09%75.82%80.55%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)527.30601.58683.29773.07871.65979.771,037.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)548.46553.66558.86
Year 2 PV (M)567.94578.76589.68
Year 3 PV (M)585.84602.65619.79
Year 4 PV (M)602.21625.37649.19
Year 5 PV (M)617.14646.94677.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,551.8612,109.8212,689.13
Equity Value (M)14,473.4415,117.2015,784.54
Shares Outstanding (M)2,619.362,619.362,619.36
Fair Value$5.53$5.77$6.03
Upside / Downside-36.92%-34.12%-31.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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