Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited (2890.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.60 - $374.70$328.22
Multi-Stage$47.95 - $52.44$50.15
Blended Fair Value$189.19
Current Price$25.00
Upside656.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.30%12.94%0.720.560.700.610.610.560.430.280.340.37
YoY Growth--27.50%-19.26%14.29%0.00%10.06%29.74%50.44%-16.39%-7.24%72.22%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.69%4.55%3.65%5.23%5.53%4.01%3.07%4.17%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,321.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,544.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,777.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,864.343,040.211,824.13
Cash Retained (M)12,777.5812,777.5812,777.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,864.34-3,040.21-1,824.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,913.249,737.3710,953.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,908.9412,908.9412,908.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.750.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.750.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.60$328.22$374.70
Upside / Downside314.40%1,212.88%1,398.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,321.7125,902.6227,586.2929,379.4031,289.0633,322.8534,322.53
Payout Ratio47.46%55.97%64.48%72.99%81.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,544.1214,498.0617,787.2421,442.7625,498.3529,990.5631,748.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,417.9913,545.1713,672.36
Year 2 PV (M)15,235.7315,525.9315,818.86
Year 3 PV (M)16,998.5817,486.5517,983.77
Year 4 PV (M)18,707.7419,427.1920,167.19
Year 5 PV (M)20,364.3821,347.9922,369.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)534,283.48560,089.57586,883.32
Equity Value (M)619,007.90647,422.40676,894.74
Shares Outstanding (M)12,908.9412,908.9412,908.94
Fair Value$47.95$50.15$52.44
Upside / Downside91.81%100.61%109.74%

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