Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.19 - $14.27 | $11.54 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.88 - $24.06 | $22.95 |
| Blended Fair Value | $17.25 | |
| Current Price | $8.68 | |
| Upside | 98.68% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01 | 0.69 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -98.61% | 57.42% | 47.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.09% | 5.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,349.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,027.98 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 321.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 269.83 | 168.64 | 101.19 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 321.17 | 321.17 | 321.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -269.83 | -168.64 | -101.19 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 51.34 | 152.52 | 219.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $9.19 | $11.54 | $14.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 5.83% | 32.93% | 64.44% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,349.15 | 1,335.65 | 1,322.30 | 1,309.08 | 1,295.98 | 1,283.02 | 1,321.52 |
| Payout Ratio | 76.19% | 78.96% | 81.72% | 84.48% | 87.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,027.98 | 1,054.58 | 1,080.54 | 1,105.88 | 1,130.60 | 1,154.72 | 1,222.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 981.97 | 991.99 | 1,002.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 936.87 | 956.09 | 975.50 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 892.82 | 920.43 | 948.61 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 849.93 | 885.16 | 921.47 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 808.30 | 850.39 | 894.21 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 25,854.82 | 27,201.14 | 28,602.97 |
| Equity Value (M) | 30,324.70 | 31,805.19 | 33,344.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| Fair Value | $21.88 | $22.95 | $24.06 |
| Upside / Downside | 152.12% | 164.43% | 177.23% |
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