Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Goldsun Building Materials Co., Ltd. (2504.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.74 - $85.65$62.83
Multi-Stage$83.58 - $91.68$87.55
Blended Fair Value$75.19
Current Price$36.35
Upside106.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.23%0.00%2.102.001.801.500.350.290.590.030.120.51
YoY Growth--5.00%11.11%20.00%327.91%19.46%-50.00%1,943.32%-76.37%-76.26%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.16%5.23%6.46%5.05%1.30%2.28%5.87%0.26%1.23%4.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,834.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,304.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)530.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)766.95479.34287.60
Cash Retained (M)530.70530.70530.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-766.95-479.34-287.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-236.2451.36243.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,178.051,178.051,178.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.200.040.21
LTM Dividend per Share2.802.802.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.200.040.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.602.853.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$46.74$62.83$85.65
Upside / Downside28.59%72.84%135.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,834.733,900.123,966.624,034.274,103.064,173.034,298.22
Payout Ratio86.16%86.93%87.70%88.46%89.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,304.033,390.323,478.593,568.883,661.253,755.723,975.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)3,157.553,188.913,220.26
Year 2 PV (M)3,017.343,077.563,138.38
Year 3 PV (M)2,883.132,969.873,058.34
Year 4 PV (M)2,754.682,865.742,980.12
Year 5 PV (M)2,631.762,765.052,903.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,019.5988,274.8292,700.74
Equity Value (M)98,464.04103,141.94108,001.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,178.051,178.051,178.05
Fair Value$83.58$87.55$91.68
Upside / Downside129.94%140.86%152.21%

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